Key Issue in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

There is little doubt that the key issue in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is Russia’s capacity to supply oil and gas to Europe and now to China. Since 70 percent of Russia’s export earnings are from oil and gas exports and 50 percent of Russia’s GDP earnings per year are from energy, a disruption in the flow of oil and gas abroad would be catastrophic to Russia. The ensuing economic chaos that such a disruption would cause would be enough to loosen Russia’s grip on Ukraine as Putin’s attention would have to focus internally to mend the problem. Whether there are disgruntled elements in Russia who would be willing to resort to such measures, like the Chechens for example, remains to be seen. However, there is reason to track this concern since it would have far-reaching implications both inside Russia and in Western Europe. After all, the EU as a whole is dependent on Russian oil and gas for 29 percent of its supply, with the Baltic states the most dependent at 100 percent.

Normandy D-Day Celebrations

Andriy J. Semotiuk
Author, Speaker, Immigration Lawyer

Tomorrow, June 6th, 2014, the 70th anniversary of D-Day and the Battle of Normandy will be commemorated by many Allied Heads of State and hundreds of thousands of visitors from all over the world. Among those who will be present will be Vladimir Putin, President of Russia.  For the reasons I hope to make clear in this comment, it is indeed ironic that Putin should be present on this occasion.

 

Western historians and commentators often remind us that World War II was started by Adolf Hitler’s attack on Poland on September 1st, 1939. But that is not quite correct. It was the attack of Hitler and Stalin, following their Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact to divide Poland, that started World War II. Even before that however, the Soviet Union supplied the Nazi war machine with strategic materiel for many years. In addition, for two years following the attack on Poland, Stalin supported  Hitler while Nazi Germany invaded Western Europe including the very fields of Normandy where the celebrations will be held. This joint collaboration ultimately led to the loss of some 50 million lives worldwide.

 

Today, while we seek to venerate those who laid down their lives for democracy and freedom on the fields of Normandy and elsewhere, Putin laments the loss of Soviet glory calling it the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. Instead of condemning Stalin, Putin ruminates about his past seeking to resurrect Stalin as a respected Western ally. Instead of acknowledging and condemning the U.S.S.R. for the concentration camp of nations that it was, Putin employs Nazi tactics such as “the big lie”-Goebbels-style propaganda, double-talk, duplicity and the use of mercenaries to subvert democracy and sovereignty in neighboring states while he seeks to re-establish the Soviet empire. Instead of supporting democracy and freedom in Russia and in allied states like Syria, his defiant aggressive actions, such as the invasion of Crimea, contravene international law and set precedents that jeopardize world peace everywhere.

 

On the solemn occasion of the 70th anniversary of Normandy, let us all recall this early Russian history and make it clear to Putin that his actions have not fooled anyone, nor will they be tolerated by world leaders or by those who lost their fathers, brothers, sons and friends on the fields of Normandy on D-day. Let us be mindful of the fact that in Putin’s Russia today, the publication of the words you are now reading would be enough to send this writer to jail as a criminal for “slandering” the Russian state.

 

Will Sanctions Stop Putin?

I believe the recent Western sanctions imposed on Russia will have the opposite effect from those intended. Briefly, Putin is troubled by internal dissent and cannot tolerate a democracy on his doorstep. As the Russian economy slides to the bottom, to stay in power Putin will need to become even more bellicose externally thus focusing the attention of his countrymen on external problems to keep a lid on internal dissension. His only way of keeping himself

in power is to increase his belligerency on the world stage. As he racks up more

and more ‘victories’ abroad, internal support will ride high until the tide eventually

turns, as it must. But this is a suicidal path that will be costly for all of us. The sooner the West draws a line in the sand and commits to an all-out effort to stop him the less costly the ultimate result will be. Time runs against us in this escalating showdown.

What Lies at the ‘Root’ of the Ukrainian Crisis?

Andriy J. Semotiuk
Author, Speaker, Immigration Lawyer

The international crisis related to Russia’s ongoing slow motion invasion is really not about Ukraine at all. It is about world peace. Russia’s failure to honour Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence has unglued the solidarity of all nations held together under security treaties by demonstrating that redrawing geographic boundaries is a matter of military might and neither the Western World nor anyone else is prepared to do anything about Russia’s adventurism. Every nation on earth whose survival or security has been the subject of a security guarantee today has reason to wonder whether they will be alone if they are threatened. Will NATO really come to the defence of its Eastern European members? Would NATO really declare war with Russia if Putin invaded Estonia? Will the United States really go to war with China if it threatens Taiwan? Will Iran and North Korea even consider abandoning their nuclear ambitions on the strength of Western assurances so easily discarded as in the case of Ukraine? If you think Ukraine is just some weak country “somewhere over there” think again. The cost of protecting Ukraine is infinitesimal in comparison to the escalating cost of upcoming confrontations with Putin once he has settled the Ukrainian “skirmish”. And if you think Canada is immune, consider the riches of Canada’s far north.

A Moment of Truth in Ukraine

Andriy J. Semotiuk
Author, Speaker, Immigration Lawyer

Here is an update on the situation in Ukraine.

Putin is headed into Ukraine for several reasons. 1) He cannot tolerate a democracy on his doorstep since it will bring about dissension inside Russia. 2) In view of economic and social hardships inside Russia he needs to externalize the problem by identifying an external enemy.

3) He needs to protect the gas pipeline through Ukraine that feeds 30 percent of Germany’s energy and a good deal of Europe and accounts for 50 percent of Russia’s annual revenues.

4) He seeks to restore the glory of Russia and create a new Holy Russian Empire uniting all the old countries of the former Soviet Union 5) In invading Crimea he has secured a warm water port for his Russian fleet while securing for Russia its offshore oil and gas riches. 6) He cannot imagine a new Russia without Kyiv as its historic ‘mother city’. We can therefore expect a total invasion until all of Ukraine returns to Russian occupation.

Many people are wondering why hasn’t Ukraine responded militarily to Russian aggression?

The answer is two fold.

Firstly, when the Russians invaded Crimea, they jammed up all communications systems so that Kyiv lost contact with its military officers there. The officers had no instructions on what to do and had to improvise. What is more, the snake worm unleashed by Russia into Ukraine’s cyber world has caused immeasurable havoc in terms of the country’s infrastructure that has been paralyzed.

Secondly, the question is fight with what? Ukraine disarmed in 1994 surrendering the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world to Russia. They are not now exactly in the position to fight the aggressor, particularly when the United States and the EU have declared they are not prepared to send soldiers there, have not been prepared to militarily intervene in any way, and have not even been willing to supply arms for the Ukrainian army to defend itself.

More generally, I believe Putin’s actions have largely dissolved the glue of international security that bound nations together. Given the U.S. and U.K. unwillingness to live up to their guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty and independence pursuant to the Budapest Accord of 1994 when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arms in exchange for such guarantees, what confidence can NATO countries have that they are secure if Russia decides to invade them? What can be said of potential peace treaties with Iran or North Korea? What confidence can Taiwan and Japan have that the U.S. will support them in the face of Chinese aggression? What reason is there to think Canada is safe from Russian adventurism in the far North?

The U.S. is particularly weak at this time having been through two wars – Iraq and Afghanistan –  and facing trouble with Syria at a time when it is inching ever closer to bankruptcy with $ 17.4 trillion in debt. The EU is not that much stronger. The parallel with Nazi Germany in the 1930s when Hitler rose to power as the West was going through the Great Depression is striking.

In my view arming Ukraine is too little too late. Despite the hardship and its weaknesses, the West needs to draw a line that Putin should not cross. Not the kind of line Obama drew for Syria, but the kind of line that the Allies drew for Hitler before he raided Poland. And they need to start using media to blast into Russia and foment the kind of dissent among Russian minorities that Russia has fomented among minorities in Ukraine. Every day that we delay strengthens Putin’s resolve and confidence and raises the cost of the showdown that we will face sooner or later. We need to face Putin head on and we need to do it soon.

 

A Setback for Ukraine

Andriy J. Semotiuk
Author, Speaker, Immigration Lawyer

Yesterday news spread about an event in Ukraine caught on video tape where a prominent Ukrainian journalist was being physically manhandled and roughed up by a Ukrainian Member of Parliament.

Alexander Panteleymonov, the director of Ukraine’s state-run NTU television company, as the video shows, was beaten by an apparent  Svoboda party member trying to force Panteleymonov to resign his office for airing a signing ceremony related to the Crimean occupation by Russia.  The aggressor was later identified as Igor Miroshnichenko, a Verkhovna Rada MP who articles later described as having shoved and punched Panteleymonov.

It is not known who was video taping the event and why that person and others did not come to the journalist’s rescue. Furthermore, details about the incident have not yet been provided.

On the face of what is known and the video as presented, it is clear that the aggressor seriously overstepped propriety and deserves to be punished and seriously reprimanded for his actions. His conduct, as displayed in the video,  amounted to criminal behaviour that merits rebuke and censure.  It is this very same kind of intolerant, brutish inhumane behaviour that is inconsistent with the rule of law whether we are talking about Ukraine or Russia. Ukrainian authorities should address this issue and deal with it as described.

That said, I would also point out that pro-Russian media sources are drumming up politically motivated condemnations of this incident in a transparent effort to lay the groundwork for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. These authors seek to defame instead of inform, and to inflame instead of settle the passions of people in Ukraine and elsewhere. For that they also deserve an equal measure of condemnation and derision. I find their conduct equally abhorrent and deserving of international censure.

A New Holy Russian Empire?

Andriy J. Semotiuk
Author, Speaker, Immigration Lawyer

Putin is after a new Holy Russian Empire and is invading Ukraine.

What will happen next, in the absence of a bold Ukrainian government

move on the Russian gas pipeline that flows through Ukraine,

is that the Ukrainian government will fall. After that the Baltic states will be next.

Who knows what will happen after that?

While sanctions are helpful, the security agreements

of nations in place now do not call for sanctions. They call for

military interventions.

We know the United States is not going to militarily intervene, nor will the U.K. although that is what they promised in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Ukraine was promised security of its sovereignty and independence in exchange for disarming its nuclear stockpile, which was then the third largest in the world. That will erode Western peace keeping credibility completely. It will also do little to correct the direction of events on the ground in Ukraine. Yes, one can quibble with the wording of the agreement, but was there really any doubt about what was being promised in the spirit of the accord?

As for whatever sanctions may be imposed, these are a small price for Putin to endure to restore the old Soviet glory. This is particularly so since no country seems to be prepared to apply sanctions against him. In six months from now, the self-interest of Western banks will trump the principle involved and they will start doing business with those who are in power in Russia once again. As news moves on to other issues the Crimean crisis will be all but forgotten and Ukraine’s subservience to Russia will be all but complete.

However, a bold move, such as to disrupt the supply of gas to Western Europe via the pipeline, while it will no doubt hurt Ukraine’s relationship to the West and cause hardship to Ukraine itself since Ukraine is completely dependent on the gas as well,  will put a halt to a major source of revenue for Russia thereby leading to its destabilization. It is the one step Ukraine can take that will have a direct effect on Russia’s capability to maintain its invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

Any other option will involve severe hardships for Ukraine while everyone else, except for some huffing and puffing about sanctions, will continue with business as usual.

Putin’s Psychopathic Power Play

 

Andriy J. Semotiuk
Author, Speaker, Immigration Lawyer

Not long ago, former President Viktor Yanukovych and his inner circle fled Ukraine. Aided for years by Western banks that failed to enforce their own anti money laundering rules, the Yanukovych clan absconded with some 70 billion dollars. This left the country on the verge of bankruptcy. Earlier in its history, when Ukraine as a new state surrendered its nuclear arsenal in 1994, the United States and Great Britain joined Russia in guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine relied on those assurances in the Budapest Agreement to surrender the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world to Russia. In both of these instances, Western nations were complicit in what has now become a moment of truth for Ukraine.

Did the West really mean it when they declared that Ukraine’s sovereignty was inviolate? Obviously not. Today despite “guarantees of sovereignty” Putin has violated not only the Budapest Agreement, but also a whole litany of international laws through his invasion of Crimea. Russian troops are marching on Ukrainian soil. Their jets have violated Ukrainian airspace. The Russian Parliament has proposed a bill to effectively annex Crimea. It is tempting to think that this is a Russian-Ukrainian conflict and that the Western world can be sheltered from it. But it can’t. Apart from broken promises and Western complicity in Ukraine’s fateful decline, there is more at stake here. Anyone who has studied history should plainly see that Putin’s aggression in Crimea is only the beginning. Putin’s psychopathic behavior today is frighteningly reminiscent of Hitler’s invasion of Austria and then the Sudetenland in the 1930s. However, what took months back then, today is proceeding at an advanced pace. Meanwhile as we retreat from one line back to another, every step along the way will embolden Putin and make our future responses that much harder and more dangerous.

 

The events of the last few days should raise existential questions for every country. In view of Putin’s troops now settled in Crimea, what are countries like Poland and the Baltic States to think about NATO promises to protect their sovereignty? Why should states such as Iran and North Korea be prepared to abandon their nuclear ambitions based on proposed disarmament agreements in the future? Who will protect Canada’s northern border if Russia decides to exploit the natural resources there? In terms of the future with China and other Pacific powers, are U.S. assurances of military support for Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines dependable? Our failure to challenge Putin’s invasion of Crimea will loosen the glue of military alliances and assurances worldwide.

 

As Andrey Illarionov, a former Putin aid recently pointed out, Putin will not be dissuaded by economic sanctions, condemnation by political leaders or threats of “consequences.” As the Romans believed long ago, if you want peace, prepare for war. It is time to show Putin, the way Kennedy showed Khruschev during the Cuban Missile Crisis, that a promise made about nuclear disarmament, is a promise that will be kept. This is a moment of truth for all of us.

 

Much will be needed to rise this challenge. Ukraine is at the front of this conflict and has put its army on full combat alert. Its people are resisting the Russian invaders but the country desperately needs military, financial and economic support. While the cancellation of the upcoming G-8 summit in Sochi and the introduction of economic sanctions by Western nations is a start, a much more wholesale coordinated effort by world leaders to respond to this threat is urgently needed. If we are not prepared to commit to war, let us at least commit to supporting Ukraine by supplying it with everything that country needs as a countermeasure to our shortcomings of the past. A concrete example is countering the “Snake” cyber virus that has been introduced into Ukraine by Russia by helping with massive cyber defense support. Actions such as military build ups in NATO bordering countries and ship deployments into the area are surely a first step that should be taken. Sanctions against Putin personally and others who support him should be invoked. This is no joke. We are in a world crisis. Let us take our responsibilities seriously for the sake of world peace.

 

Andriy J. Semotiuk is an attorney practicing in the area of international law focusing on immigration. A published author and former United Nations correspondent, Mr. Semotiuk is a member of the bars of New York and California in the United States and Ontario and British Columbia in Canada.  He now practices law and resides in Toronto.

 

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Andy Semotiuk Author, Journalist and Immigration Lawyer